The Calm Before the Scramble: What Shamubeel Eaqub’s Outlook Means for Construction Hiring

Ginny Ryder • April 3, 2025

We had the chance to sit in on the recent Trade Me breakfast event with Shamubeel Eaqub. If you haven’t come across him before, he’s one of New Zealand’s go-to economic commentators. Known for cutting through the noise with practical insights, Shamubeel has spent over 20 years making sense of complex economic shifts, writing books like Growing Apart and Generation Rent and regularly popping up in the media with straight-talking analysis.


Shamubeel gave a pretty honest take on what’s really happening behind the “recession” headlines. While it might feel like the market is on pause, most businesses aren’t letting people go, they’re simply replacing them. In his words, “We’re not seeing widespread redundancies. What’s happening is churn - and that churn is still hard to manage.”


At the same time, we’re seeing an uptick in business liquidations. Watching companies fold is never easy, especially when it affects people and livelihoods. But as Shamubeel pointed out, “a recession is like a reset button.” While painful, this period is also helping the sector recalibrate. Businesses that were operating on thin margins or shaky ground are being forced to take a hard look at their foundations, and that’s not all bad. Stronger businesses will emerge on the other side.


We are already seeing a gap between businesses with dedicated recruitment teams and those without. Internal teams are managing to fill roles. But for everyone else, hiring still feels slow and frustrating. We’re noticing that one of the ongoing challenges in the current market is timing. While recruitment processes are understandably cautious right now, delays can make it harder to secure top candidates. The reality is that strong applicants don’t tend to stay on the market for long, and by the time decisions are made, those individuals may have already accepted other offers. Even in a quieter market, good people are still being picked up quickly, which means moving too slowly can reduce your options.


Right now, many firms are playing it safe: holding back on new hires, watching cash flow, and waiting for things to settle. That caution is understandable, but it comes with risk. Shamubeel warned that “when the recovery comes, it’ll come quickly,” and those not ready to move could miss the boat.



What Candidates Actually Want (and What Employers Think They Want)

One of the standout insights from Shamubeel was around candidate motivators and the mismatch between what employers think people want versus what they’re actually looking for. Employers often assume that, in a tougher market, candidates are prioritising stability above all else. But Shamubeel pointed out that this just isn’t the case. What people really want is development, progression, and the chance to grow their careers. “There’s a gap,” he said, “between perceived and real motivators.” For construction businesses trying to attract or keep good people, it means shifting the focus, not just offering a secure role but showing what comes next, how someone can learn, and where they can go from there. Shamubeel also highlighted the importance of hiring for attributes as well as qualifications, things like adaptability, attitude, and cultural fit. Those people stick, grow, and add real value when the pressure’s on. Qualifications are less important in the long term than what hiring managers may think.



The Key Takeaway


Now is the time to act to get ahead of the curve. If you’re going to need people in the next 3–6 months, it pays to start thinking about it now. 


Construction projects live and die by the strength of the teams behind them. Waiting until the market “feels better” could mean missing out altogether, especially when demand picks up and supply is still tight.


We’re always happy to talk about what this looks like in real time. We’re deep in the market every day and see how this plays out across different parts of the construction sector. If it’s time to start thinking ahead, we’re here to share what we’re seeing and what’s working.

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